New Year's Resolution Odds Calculator

Only a small fraction of resolutions survive past February. Answer a few honest questions about your goal and habits to get your personalized success-odds estimate — for entertainment and motivation, not a guarantee.

Your Estimated Odds of Success
Adjustment for Past Attempts
Adjustment for Goal Specificity
Adjustment for Accountability
Adjustment for Motivation Level

About this calculator

Get a fun, research-informed estimate of your odds of sticking to your New Year's resolution based on goal type, past track record, support system, and specificity.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this a scientific prediction?

No — it's a lighthearted estimate inspired by general behavior-change research trends (like the value of specificity and accountability), meant for fun and reflection, not a clinical or guaranteed forecast.

What actually improves real odds of success?

Studies on habit change generally point to specific measurable goals, social accountability, and starting small as the biggest levers — which is why this calculator weights those factors.

Can I retake this throughout the year?

Yes, many people revisit it in February or June to see how their habits and motivation have shifted.